Analytic Tools

Pherson Associates is developing four simple, web-enabled critical thinking tools that analysts can use in collaborative workspaces. Click on each tool for a more detailed description.

Collaborative-ACH (C-ACH). Pherson Associates, building on the analytic expertise of its senior managers and lessons learned from teaching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) methodology to over 2,500 IC analysts, has built a collaborative version of ACH that is now undergoing beta testing. C-ACH includes all the functionalities of ACH but adds a powerful tool to analyze the degree of disagreement among analysts loading their data.

Multiple Hypotheses Generator. One of the challenges in conducting an ACH exercise is the generation of a comprehensive list of mutually exclusive hypotheses. This tool allows analysts to work their way systematically and efficiently through this process.

Indicators Validator. Analysts are used to creating lists of indicators for alternative scenarios, but rarely do they take the next step to assess the diagnostic value of the indicators developed. PAL has developed a simple tool that allows analysts to rank order their indicators from most to least diagnostic (and discard those that are not truly diagnostic).

The Pre-Mortem. The Pre-Mortem prompts analysts to ask a simple question before sending their paper or project forward: What if my analysis turns out to be wrong? How would I explain that? It takes analysts on a journey asking critical thinking questions such as: Were my key assumptions valid? How reliable was my key evidence? Was deception a factor? Did I ignore contradictory evidence or the absence of information? The tool generates a rough calculation of how vulnerable their analysis is to each of these issues and suggests Structured Analytic Techniques that could be employed to explore these vulnerabilities with more rigor and improve the analysis.