These case studies are copyright protected and may not be duplicated without express written permission from Pherson Associates, LLC (publications@pherson.org).

Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes Case Study

The Aluminum Tubes Case Study applies the Key Assumptions Check, Premortem Analysis, Structured Self-Critique, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses structured techniques to explore how better analysis could have been generated that would have helped the Intelligence Community avoid the cognitive traps and incorrect mindsets that led to this intelligence failure.

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Iraq WMD: Facts, Fiction, and Yellowcake Case Study

The Iraq WMD: Facts, Fiction, and Yellowcake Case Study applies the Deception Detection, Diagnostic Reasoning, Argument Mapping, and Key Assumptions Check structured techniques to explore how better analysis could have been generated to debunk the yellowcake reporting and provide better support to senior policymakers and decision makers.

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The Murder of JonBenét Ramsey Case Study

The Murder of JonBenét Ramsey Case Study applies Multiple Hypothesis Generation, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Indicators, Indicators Validation, Venn Analysis, and What If? Analysis to explore how better analysis could have helped the Boulder, Colorado Police Department solve this murder.

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Ed Ramos Case Study

This six-page case study was developed in October 2004 by Pherson Associates, LLC to illustrate the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) methodology. It is a slightly fictionalized version of a true case study prepared by Thomas W. Shreeve & Associates for the Intelligence Community Case Method Program. The case is based on real events. See the John O’Malley Case Study for a CIA adaptation of this same case.
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John O’Malley Case Study

This six-page case study was developed in 2005 by Pherson Associates, LLC to illustrate the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) methodology. It is a slightly fictionalized version of a true case study prepared by Thomas W. Shreeve & Associates for the Intelligence Community Case Method Program. The case is based on real events. See the Ed Ramos Case Study for a DEA adaptation of this same case.
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Carlos Lopez Paredes Case Study

This 5-page case can be used to illustrate the types of decisions that must be made by counterintelligence officers. It is a slightly fictionalized version of a true case.
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